What Pick Playbook does
Pick Playbook is the sister site of Pick Pony. We build computer models that rate every game, compare our number with the sportsbook line, and publish a pick only when our number and the line disagree by enough to matter.
How a pick is graded
- Against the spread (ATS): the pick wins if the team covers the point spread posted at the time we publish. A push (exact tie on the spread) is a push, not a win.
- Return on investment (ROI): every pick is settled as a flat $110 bet to win $100 (the standard -110 price). To break even at -110 a bettor needs to win 52.4% of decided picks.
- Closing line value (CLV): we also compare the line we published at with the final line before tip-off. Beating the closing line regularly is the best early sign that picks are sharp, long before the win-loss record is meaningful.
What we show
Every published pick stays on the Results page, wins and losses. Nothing is deleted or re-graded after the fact. Records from testing on past seasons are labelled as tests, kept apart from the live record.
What we do not do
We do not promise winners. Sports betting markets are hard to beat; most bettors lose over time. Our picks are information, for entertainment, and you are responsible for your own bets.